Miami Open gets underway: the tournament of surprises? Who will win?
In the 2025 edition, it was Jakub Mensik who lifted the trophy, defeating Novak Djokovic.
From the desert of Indian Wells, the tour now moves to Florida for one of the most spectacular and unpredictable events on the calendar: the Miami Open, the second Masters 1000 of the season and a key stop in the so-called Sunshine Double. The women’s draw got underway yesterday, while today the men’s draw also begins.
Faster courts, different weather conditions and a unique atmosphere: Miami is often the tournament of surprises. In the 2025 edition, for example, it was Jakub Mensik who lifted the trophy, defeating Novak Djokovic 7-6 7-6. Djokovic, however, has chosen to skip the event this year.
Men’s draw: Sinner leads, but the competition is fierce
The most anticipated name is obviously Jannik Sinner, fresh off his triumph at Indian Wells and now a benchmark on hard courts.
But the men’s draw is far from predictable. The main favorites are, as always, Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz (already champion here in 2022). However, Alcaraz could face a tricky second-round match against Brazilian rising talent Joao Fonseca.
Just behind them are Daniil Medvedev, a former Miami champion, and Alexander Zverev. But watch out for potential surprises: dangerous outsiders could include home favorite Ben Shelton, the unpredictable Kazakh Alexander Bublik, and defending champion Jakub Mensik.
As always, seeded players receive a bye and enter the tournament in the second round. Among the most interesting first-round matches are the clash between former Grand Slam champion Marin Cilic and Australia’s Alexei Popyrin, as well as Fonseca vs Maroszan.
Keep an eye as well on two young talents we will likely hear a lot about in the future, both awarded wild cards: French 2009-born Moise Kouame, facing Svajda, and 19-year-old Spaniard Rafael Jodar, who takes on Hanfmann.
Women’s draw: everyone chasing Sabalenka
If the men’s draw has two clear leaders, the WTA draw also starts with two main favorites: Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina, who recently contested a spectacular final at Indian Wells.
Just behind them, based on rankings, are Iga Świątek and Coco Gauff, although at the moment they do not seem in top form to seriously threaten the front-runners.
But as mentioned, Miami’s unique conditions make it an unpredictable tournament. That brings several other players back into contention. Among them, the Americans Amanda Anisimova and Jessica Pegula stand out, as well as the rising young Canadian Mboko.
Among the remaining first-round matches, a few are particularly worth watching. One is the clash between the ageless Venus Williams, who will turn 46 in June, and Britain’s Francesca Jones, whose story has drawn attention due to a congenital condition that did not prevent her from becoming a professional player.
Another interesting first-round match is Paula Badosa, former world No. 2, against Belarusian Aliaksandra Sasnovich.
Players already through to the second round include: Boulter, Blinkova, Cirstea, Jacquemot, Kessler, Linette, Osorio, Siegemund, Sonmez and Tomljanovic.
The keys to the tournament
Quick adaptation to conditions (balls travel faster than in Indian Wells)
Physical endurance (heat and humidity play a major role)
Offensive tennis rewarded more than in Indian Wells
And above all: Miami is one of those tournaments where momentum matters more than ranking.
If Indian Wells is often about control and patience, Miami is the opposite: pace, aggression, and more open matches.
And that is exactly what makes it one of the most fascinating events on the calendar.
Who will win?
What do you think? 🎾