Madrid, Sinner remains the man to beat. WTA: still a battle between Sabalenka, Rybakina and Gauff?
Carlos Alcaraz’s withdrawal makes Madrid Open more uncertain and puts more pressure on Jannik Sinner, while the women’s tournament looks set for another showdown between Sabalenka, Rybakina and Gauff.
The Madrid Masters 1000 draws have been released, but the men’s draw has already undergone an important change: after Carlos Alcaraz’s withdrawal, Jack Draper also pulled out, forcing the organizers to reshuffle the seeds and adjust the men’s bracket.
Without the Spaniard, the tournament loses its biggest favorite and opens up even more. Jannik Sinner inevitably remains the main reference point, the world No. 1 and the player to beat, but the feeling is that this Madrid is even less hierarchical than expected.
In the men’s draw, Sinner controls the top half as the top seed and starts with a theoretically comfortable opening: a first-round bye and then one of the qualifiers or a lucky loser. His possible second-round path changes as well: with Draper’s withdrawal, Alex Michelsen moves into the seeded positions as No. 33, making that section slightly lighter and giving Federico Cinà an even more interesting opportunity to try to build a run.
Further ahead, however, the level remains extremely high. Andrey Rublev and especially Joao Fonseca represent very serious obstacles, as do Alex De Minaur and Ben Shelton in the central part of the draw. Sinner’s path, in short, will not be easy, but Alcaraz’s absence certainly places even more of the tournament’s weight on his shoulders.
Lorenzo Musetti’s section is also very interesting. Seeded No. 6, he benefits from Draper’s withdrawal as well: his possible Round of 16 could now be against Hubert Hurkacz or Michelsen, a slightly less aggressive path compared to the original version of the draw. Good news for a player who can realistically think big on clay.
In the bottom half, Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev lead a more unpredictable section. Flavio Cobolli remains one to watch closely: his quarter, with Dimitrov, Learner Tien and Khachanov, is still difficult but open. Felix Auger-Aliassime and Casper Ruud seem to have a quieter path, but potentially a very solid one.
On the women’s side, meanwhile, the picture remains unchanged and the impression is always the same: total balance, with the world’s top three players — Sabalenka, Rybakina and Gauff — ready to fight for the title.
Aryna Sabalenka opens the top half with a draw that looks manageable in the early rounds, but Jasmine Paolini and Naomi Osaka are players who can quickly change the tournament’s narrative. Iga Swiatek is in the same half, and a possible clash with Mirra Andreeva remains one of the most fascinating matchups of the entire week.
The bottom half features Elena Rybakina and Coco Gauff as the main references, but attention should also go to Jessica Pegula and Amanda Anisimova.
In short, Madrid certainly loses one major protagonist, but gains even more uncertainty.
Sinner remains the natural favorite, perhaps even more than before. But behind him, the group of contenders is wide, credible, and ready to take advantage. And on clay, where every match gets longer and every detail matters more, it takes very little to turn a favorite into a target.
More than a tournament of hierarchies, this Madrid increasingly feels like a tournament of opportunities.